The United States have already played three of their group stage neighbours, and the results aren’t reassuring. Beat Paraguay 2-1. Beat Australia 2-1. Lost to Turkey 1-2. Group D begins today with a host nation that rehearsed half its draw in friendlies and came away with a split decision. The friendlies don’t count now that the real thing has started. But they were the closest looks we got at fixtures that matter.
Group D got a full dress rehearsal
Three of Group D’s pairings have already shared a pitch, and the United States sit at the center of all of them. In November 2025 they edged Paraguay 2-1. A month earlier, the same scoreline against Australia. In June 2025, Turkey came to town and won 1-2, the one result that broke the pattern.
So the host knows what beating two of these sides feels like and what losing to the third looks like. The Turkey defeat is the one that stands out, because it came earliest and against the side that has since hammered FYR Macedonia 4-0 and seen off Venezuela. A friendly loss in June 2025 tells you nothing about a group game in June 2026. It does tell you Turkey can hurt this defence.
Mexico and South Korea couldn’t be separated
Group A’s headline pairing already happened, and it ended level. Mexico 2, South Korea 2, back in September 2025. A draw between two sides who will meet again with points on the line.
What’s changed since matters more than the scoreline. Mexico have gone on a tear: 5-1 over Serbia, 2-0 over Ghana, a 1-0 win over Australia. South Korea ran up a 5-0 over Trinidad and Tobago but lost 0-1 to Austria and got dismantled 4-0 by Ivory Coast in March. The 2-2 was a fair reflection of two evenly matched sides on the night. I’d take Mexico to come out ahead in the rematch, on current form rather than that September night.
Egypt’s 1-0 over New Zealand was the quiet one
The oldest fixture on the list is also the most one sided in feel. Egypt 1, New Zealand 0, March 2024, two sides who land in Group G together. A single goal, but a clean sheet against a team that has since collapsed.
New Zealand’s recent record is grim. Lost 0-1 to England, lost 0-4 to Haiti, lost 0-2 to Ecuador. Three friendlies, three defeats, one goal scored. Egypt, by contrast, held Spain to a goalless draw and beat Russia 1-0 before losing a tight one to Brazil. The 2024 result was narrow. The gap has only grown, and it favours Egypt.
Algeria are the team nobody’s talking about
Three friendlies, no goals conceded against serious opposition. Algeria drew 0-0 with Uruguay, beat the Netherlands 1-0 in June 2026, then put four past Bolivia. That’s a clean sheet against a Dutch side that otherwise beat Uzbekistan and a clean sheet against Uruguay.
The Netherlands result is the one that carries weight. Algeria didn’t park the bus and nick it; they won outright and kept Uruguay scoreless across 90 minutes too. A 4-3 loss to Sweden back in June 2025 sits in the record as a reminder this defence can be opened. But the recent run is the work of a team that has tightened up at exactly the right moment. Anyone drawn near them in 2026 should be paying attention now.
Brazil are scoring for fun and leaking at the back
Six past Panama. Three past Croatia. Two past Egypt. Brazil have scored in every one of their last three friendlies and won all three. The attack is in form, and the goals are coming from everywhere.
The problem is at the other end. That 6-2 over Panama means two conceded against a side ranked well below them. The 2-1 over Egypt and 3-1 over Croatia each leaked a goal too. Eleven scored, four shipped across three games. The forward line will carry Brazil a long way in a 12-group, 48-team format where the math now sends 32 teams through to the knockouts. The defending is the thing that could undo a deep run, and it’s worth noting before anyone gets carried away.
USA and Germany met, and it stung
Group D’s host got one more look at elite opposition, and Germany handed them a lesson. United States 1, Germany 2, June 2026. Germany aren’t in Group D, which is exactly why this matters: it’s a measuring stick, not a preview.
Germany have been efficient in their warm ups. The 2-1 over the USA followed a 4-0 demolition of Finland and a 2-1 win over Ghana. Three friendlies, three wins, eight scored. The Americans, meanwhile, beat Senegal 3-2 but lost 0-2 to Portugal and now this. The host nation is generating goals and conceding them in roughly equal measure, which makes for good viewing but nervy group stage afternoons.
Friendlies don’t award points. They reveal things, and the United States have given their three June opponents more of it than anyone else in the field.