Argentina won the 2022 World Cup final 4-2 on penalties against France. That single shootout highlights the split between nations who handle this format and nations who don’t.

Argentina and West Germany wrote the template

Argentina have played seven shootouts at World Cups, won six, and lifted the trophy in 2022 partly because of what they do from twelve yards. West Germany went three from three before reunification, dispatching France in 1982, Mexico in 1986, and England in 1990. The unified Germany side added a fourth win in 2006 against Argentina, finishing their record at four played, four won. Croatia are the only other nation with an unblemished record: four shootouts, four wins, all of them since 2018. What separates the reliable teams isn’t mystique. It’s that they don’t have the collapses that define the other end of the table.

Spain have become the cautionary case

Spain have reached five World Cup shootouts and won exactly one. The 2002 quarter-final exit to South Korea and the 2018 round of 16 defeat to Russia are bad enough. Then came Qatar 2022, where Morocco beat them 3-0 on penalties, Spain converting zero of their attempts. That is the worst single shootout performance in the data for a team with significant World Cup history. Spain have lost their last 3 shootouts across 2002, 2018, and 2022. Whatever Spain do well in open play, penalties have consistently gone against them.

Three shootouts that defined national reputations

Turin, 1990. West Germany beat England 4-3 on penalties in the semi-final, Stuart Pearce and Chris Waddle missing for England. That result launched 30 years of English anxiety around the format. England then lost to Argentina 4-3 in 1998 and to Portugal 3-1 in 2006 before finally beating Colombia 4-3 in 2018. Three defeats before one win. Italy’s version ran parallel: they lost the 1990 semi final to Argentina 4-3 on penalties, lost the 1994 final to Brazil 3-2, lost in 1998 to France before finally winning in 2006. Both nations built their shootout identities in that 1990 tournament and spent decades working back from it.

France have lost more than they’ve won

France has 2 wins and 3 losses across 5 shootouts. The two wins came in 1986 and 1998. The losses came in 1982, 2006, and then the 2022 final against Argentina, where they converted only 2 of their attempts after drawing 3-3. For a squad that generated enough quality to take that final to extra time and then level it at the death, going 2-4 on penalties was a brutal conclusion. France are not in the same tier as England or Spain for shootout dysfunction, but 3 losses from 5 shootouts, including two in World Cup finals, isn’t something you can dismiss.

The 2026 format makes more shootouts inevitable

The 2022 tournament ran a round of 16 into the knockout bracket. In 2026, with 48 teams across 12 groups of four, the top two from each group plus the eight best third placed finishers advance, creating a round of 32 before the round of 16 even begins. That’s 5 knockout rounds instead of 4, meaning a team that goes deep plays up to eight matches total. Every one of those knockout games can finish level after 120 minutes. The 2026 bracket doesn’t guarantee more shootouts, but it makes the baseline probability higher than any previous tournament because there are simply more knockout matches to play. Teams with Croatia’s or Argentina’s record have a built in edge when knockout matches go the distance. With Spain, it’s a different story.

The round of 32 alone adds sixteen knockout matches that didn’t exist in 2022. For nations who have never solved this problem, that’s a lot of extra pressure.